2016 MLB predictions (American League)
Feb 5, 2016 13:11:49 GMT -5
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Post by Big Easy Bulldogs on Feb 5, 2016 13:11:49 GMT -5
I thought it would be fun to throw together some of our projections for the upcoming MLB season. Here's mine, feel free to comment or throw in your own predictions. Have at it! I'll probably be extremely wrong, as my likes and dislikes for teams usually get in the way of common sense.
American League
EAST
1. Toronto Blue Jays - This team had the best offense in baseball last season and probably will again this year. Try pitching to Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion, and affter those guys you can add in Pillar, Russell Martin, and Chris Colabello and you end up with one of the scariest lineups out there.
They gave $36 million over 3 years to J.A. Happ to fill in the loss of David Price, and added Jesse Chavez for depth, but are led by Estrada and Marcus Stroman. You have to wonder if they will trade for another ace down the stretch to try and win it all, Price sure helped last season and they will miss him.
2. New York Yankees - Boston has ton of young talent, and Toronto has risen to the top, but the Yankees have guys that just keep producing. I'm not sure how the likes of Beltran, Teixeira, A-Rod, and McCann still put up good numbers but they do. They added Starlin Castro in a trade with the Cubs, but of course the big splash was landing Aroldis Chapman in a trade with the Reds. This is why I have them over the Red Sox right now. You have 3 guys that could be the hardest relievers to hit in all of baseball. Batters swing and miss % vs Miller 42.7% (best in baseball), Chapman 42.6% (2nd in MLB), Betances 39.8% (3rd in MLB). K's per 9/IP among relievers...Chapman 15.74, Miller 14.59, and Betances 14.04, yes the top 3 in baseball. The 3 combined for a sparkling 1.70 ERA, and 347 strikeouts across 212 innings, and that's just absurd. Servino had a great first year, but Tanaka's health will be key for the rotation to succeed.
After 2 years of missing out on the playoffs, they were back in 2015 and they will be looking to get there again in 2016.
3. Boston Red Sox - Some people will make the case for them going from worst to first and I'm fine with that. In my opinion they're still about a year away from winning the division though. They made one of the biggest FA splashes with the signing of David Price and boy did they give him some money, just over $200 million. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched well in his first full season and the rest of the rotation is solid with Bucholz, Porcello, and Joe Kelly. They also bolstered the bullpen with the acquisitions of Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith. The lineup 1-9 is very solid as Betts and Bogaerts had fantastic seasons and will be a force in that lineup. If Runsey Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. have solid season this team could easily be looking to get into the playoffs because we all know what Pedroia, Ortiz, Han Ram, and the Panda can do. Boston has plenty to be excited about over the next few years.
4. Baltimore Orioles - Even though they don't have the pitching like the Rays, their lineup is still great. They kept Chris Davis with a huge contract, and he will provide his usual power to lead a lineup of Machado, Adam Jones, and hopefully a healthy Matt Wieters. Trumbo was a nice pickup and will look to regain his power stroke and if he doest will provide another big bat for the AL East to deal with.
The rotation still has questions has the ERA rose from 3.51 in 2014 to 4.53 in 2015. One of the big reasons was Tillman who went from an ERA of 3.34 to 4.99 over that same span. Rumor has it they are still looking to add a starter, whether that is signing FA Gallardo, or via trade remains to be seen. The bullpen has a great 1-2 punch with Britton and O'day, and should have another solid season.
5. Tampa Bay Rays - They still have a great rotation, led by Chris Archer who could still be getting better which is pretty scary. Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi were solid, and Alex Cobb and Matt Moore will be coming back from injuries to bolster a great rotation. The Rays tried to answer some offensive questions by trading Jake McGee to the Rockies for OF Corey Dickerson, who should slot in to the lineup well. Evan Longoria still needs to put up offensive numbers like they paid him to if the Rays want to compete in a stacked AL East division.
CENTRAL
1. Kansas City Royals - This team has everything figured out. They seemed to just gel so well together the past couple of seasons. They thrived on the disrespect after they lost to the Giants in 2014 and came back even stronger to win the World Series in 2015. No one in the lineup really jumps out at you, but its very solid 1-9 with Cain, Hosmer, Morales, Moustakas, and Perez leading the way. The Championship wouldn't of happened without their bullpen as they dominated from the 6th inning on. Wade Davis and kelvin Herrera are special and will once again help bring home the victories. Of course some of us will ask questions about the rotation, but the Royals will carry on and do their own thing...like win more games and get back to the postseason.
2. Detroit Tigers - I think a lot of people are skeptical about the Tigers' rotation, as they should be, and one of those reasons is because we're not really sure which Justin Verlander we will get this season. Will we get 2014 Verlander who had a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP? Or do we get the 2015 improved Verlander who struggled early after being injured but figured things out and ended the year with a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. We know Verlander won't be returning to his MVP form (in 2011 when he went 24-5 with a 0.90 WHIP and struck out 250 batters) but he's more than capable of pitching like he did in the 2nd half of 2015 and leading the Tigers rotation that needs him to have a solid year. (Remember late in the year he came within 1 out of his 3rd career no-hitter). They did sign Jordan Zimmerman to help and he should do that, but to me the key is keeping Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez healthy. If they do they will be competing with the Blue Jays as the best offense in the American league, thanks to the surprise signing of Justin Upton and the emergence of slugger J.D. Martinez. If Castellanos and Kinsler have a solid year this team could be a force to be reckoned with. Imagine facing Kinsler, Miggy, Upton, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, and Castellanos...scary.
3. Cleveland Indians - The Indians definitely won't be out-powering you as they finished 11th in the AL in runs scored and 13th in HR's. They aren't totally bare on offense though as Kipnis rebounded well and Brantley had a good season. We all know Lindor could play defense, but he surprised on the offensive side putting together a very good season. They didn't mess with the lineup much but added Mike Napoli to help with the power but will that be enough?
While the offense won't likely win them games, their rotation will as it is one of the best in baseball. Corey Kluber is the ace that leads the way, but Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, and Cody Anderson all bare their own weight. Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, and Zach McAllister helped lead the Indians pen to the 2nd lowest ERA (3.12) in the league and should finish games off provided the offense puts up enough runs.
4. Chicago White Sox - When I started writing this I had the Twins ahead of the Sox, but looking at the team from the South Side of Chicago I have to say it's a pretty good team. The rotation is solid led by strikeout machine Chris Sale who is a true ace. Jose Quintana is one of the underrated pitchers in baseball (3 straight seasons of 30 or more starts and 200 + innings) and will provide solid produciton (3.36 ERA and 177 K's in 2015). Carlos Rodon could be an X-factor if he improves on a 2014 where he struggled with control (though he's still young, and has time to fix that).
They made a big trade and landed the Toddfather from the Cincinnati Reds (insert sad face here) and he should bring good protection for slugger Jose Abreu. Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera should get on base to provide a good offense for the White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins - They didn't do anything particularly well last season and finished average or below average in most pitching and hitting categories, but still fought for a wild-card. This is a team that has two of the best young guys in baseball, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, but are still probably a couple of years before they compete for a playoff spot. The lineup isn't terrible and they added Japanese slugger Byung-Ho-Park to try and help but Minnesota isn't a power hitter's park. The rotation is decent led by Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson. Glen Perkins is a solid closer that will finish out your games, but the question is how many times will he get the chance to do that this season? I can't really figure this team out.
WEST
1. Texas Rangers - This team surprised a lot of people last season by finishing the year strong and winning the West after ending 2014 with a 67-95 record! They traded for Cole Hamels and will get Yu Darvish back sometime in the first half, giving them a very solid rotation with Holland, Martin Perez and Colby Lewis (or Chi Chi Gonzalez) in the back end.
They have 3 rising stars in their minor system with Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Lewis Brinson all waiting for their shot in Alrington. But right now they still have an offense that can win them games. Prince Fielder and an ageless Adrian Beltre will man the middle of the lineup with speedster Delini DeShields Jr, and Choo getting on base in front of them. Josh Hamilton, Mooreland, Andrus and Rougned Odor will round out the bottom. Shawn Tolleson, Sam Dyson, and Jake Diekman will all help finish out games as they will likely go down to the wire again with the rising Astros.
2. Houston Astros - It seems like just yesterday we were talking about how bad this team was, and the fact that their payroll was around $20 million. Now they have a group of rising stars led by the uber-talented Carlos Correa. The already stud SS, Jose Altuve, and George Springer make this team very fun to watch. Carlos Gomez in a contract year will look to rebound after a down year.
The rotation is great led by All-Star, bearded, Dallas Kuechel. Lance McCullers, Collin McHigh and a full season of Mike Fiers should help this rotation be one of the best in the AL. The Bullpen got a big boost with the trade for closer Ken Giles. Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp, and Pat Neshek will try and bridge the gap to get the ball into Giles' hands in the 9th.
The young guns here in Houston have gone from a can't watch to a must see, and they have plenty of talent still in the minors. Wouldn't be surprised to see this team go far in the playoffs after being knocked out by the World Series champs last year.
3. Los Angeles Angels - I think it can be easy to forget that the best baseball player on the planet still plays in Anaheim. With the rise of Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant, many people seem to have started to under-appreciate what Mike Trout not only has done, but what he can still do. It would take you a long time to run out of adjectives to describe this guy and he seems to put on a show every night, whether it's dropping a bomb, or robbing a home run. Pujols slugged his way to a 40+ HR year, but declined at the end of the year. Kole Calhoun is starting to make a name for himself as he won a Gold Glove, and hit 26 HR's. They traded for Yunel Escobar, but the biggest acquisition was Andrelton Simmons who will bring his stellar defense to the Angels. The rotation will certainly be happy about that and Garrett Richards will look to improve his numbers after coming back from knee surgery last season. C.J. Wilson, Heaney, Santiago, and Jared Weaver round out a good pitching staff.
The offense still has some questions in my opinion after ranking 27th in AVG, and 20th in runs last season. They might need to add another bat if they want to compete in a rising AL West.
4. Seattle Mariners - This is another team that's kind of hard to figure out. Their rotation should be solid led by ace Felix Hernandez (who had a down year according to King Felix numbers) and youngsters Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. Walker was terrible in the first half but started to figure things out after the All-Star break and should continue to improve. The bullpen has some questions started with Steve Cishek who had a terrible time keeping guys off the basepaths last season. Joaquin Benoit could push him for the closing duties.
The tricky part is this offense. They seem to try and add someone every year but it never seems to really help. This year it was Adam Lind, who is underrated and should help stable the lineup. Cano, Cruz, and Seager provide a nice 3-5 but the rest of the lineup likely isn't strong enough to help compete with the top 3 in the West.
5. Oakland A's - This team is always rebuilding right? Seems so as they without question, traded their best player in Josh Donaldson last season (who did nothing except win an MVP in Toronto). There is little to be excited about in the lineup other than maybe Billy Burns and Josh Reddick. Stephen Vogt had a solid first half, but slid late in the year.
Sonny Gray is excelent, but you have to wonder if they will end up shipping him off too to try and re-tool the minor system. Not going to be a fun year if you're an A's fan.
PLAYOFFS
Division Winners:
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
Texas Rangers (Wait, maybe the Astros, no Rangers, no Astros)
Wild Card Winners:
Houston Astros
New York Yankees (But hopefully the Detroit Tigers)
Hope you enjoy! (Let me know if you see any errors)
Aaron Miller
American League
EAST
1. Toronto Blue Jays - This team had the best offense in baseball last season and probably will again this year. Try pitching to Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion, and affter those guys you can add in Pillar, Russell Martin, and Chris Colabello and you end up with one of the scariest lineups out there.
They gave $36 million over 3 years to J.A. Happ to fill in the loss of David Price, and added Jesse Chavez for depth, but are led by Estrada and Marcus Stroman. You have to wonder if they will trade for another ace down the stretch to try and win it all, Price sure helped last season and they will miss him.
2. New York Yankees - Boston has ton of young talent, and Toronto has risen to the top, but the Yankees have guys that just keep producing. I'm not sure how the likes of Beltran, Teixeira, A-Rod, and McCann still put up good numbers but they do. They added Starlin Castro in a trade with the Cubs, but of course the big splash was landing Aroldis Chapman in a trade with the Reds. This is why I have them over the Red Sox right now. You have 3 guys that could be the hardest relievers to hit in all of baseball. Batters swing and miss % vs Miller 42.7% (best in baseball), Chapman 42.6% (2nd in MLB), Betances 39.8% (3rd in MLB). K's per 9/IP among relievers...Chapman 15.74, Miller 14.59, and Betances 14.04, yes the top 3 in baseball. The 3 combined for a sparkling 1.70 ERA, and 347 strikeouts across 212 innings, and that's just absurd. Servino had a great first year, but Tanaka's health will be key for the rotation to succeed.
After 2 years of missing out on the playoffs, they were back in 2015 and they will be looking to get there again in 2016.
3. Boston Red Sox - Some people will make the case for them going from worst to first and I'm fine with that. In my opinion they're still about a year away from winning the division though. They made one of the biggest FA splashes with the signing of David Price and boy did they give him some money, just over $200 million. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched well in his first full season and the rest of the rotation is solid with Bucholz, Porcello, and Joe Kelly. They also bolstered the bullpen with the acquisitions of Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith. The lineup 1-9 is very solid as Betts and Bogaerts had fantastic seasons and will be a force in that lineup. If Runsey Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. have solid season this team could easily be looking to get into the playoffs because we all know what Pedroia, Ortiz, Han Ram, and the Panda can do. Boston has plenty to be excited about over the next few years.
4. Baltimore Orioles - Even though they don't have the pitching like the Rays, their lineup is still great. They kept Chris Davis with a huge contract, and he will provide his usual power to lead a lineup of Machado, Adam Jones, and hopefully a healthy Matt Wieters. Trumbo was a nice pickup and will look to regain his power stroke and if he doest will provide another big bat for the AL East to deal with.
The rotation still has questions has the ERA rose from 3.51 in 2014 to 4.53 in 2015. One of the big reasons was Tillman who went from an ERA of 3.34 to 4.99 over that same span. Rumor has it they are still looking to add a starter, whether that is signing FA Gallardo, or via trade remains to be seen. The bullpen has a great 1-2 punch with Britton and O'day, and should have another solid season.
5. Tampa Bay Rays - They still have a great rotation, led by Chris Archer who could still be getting better which is pretty scary. Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi were solid, and Alex Cobb and Matt Moore will be coming back from injuries to bolster a great rotation. The Rays tried to answer some offensive questions by trading Jake McGee to the Rockies for OF Corey Dickerson, who should slot in to the lineup well. Evan Longoria still needs to put up offensive numbers like they paid him to if the Rays want to compete in a stacked AL East division.
CENTRAL
1. Kansas City Royals - This team has everything figured out. They seemed to just gel so well together the past couple of seasons. They thrived on the disrespect after they lost to the Giants in 2014 and came back even stronger to win the World Series in 2015. No one in the lineup really jumps out at you, but its very solid 1-9 with Cain, Hosmer, Morales, Moustakas, and Perez leading the way. The Championship wouldn't of happened without their bullpen as they dominated from the 6th inning on. Wade Davis and kelvin Herrera are special and will once again help bring home the victories. Of course some of us will ask questions about the rotation, but the Royals will carry on and do their own thing...like win more games and get back to the postseason.
2. Detroit Tigers - I think a lot of people are skeptical about the Tigers' rotation, as they should be, and one of those reasons is because we're not really sure which Justin Verlander we will get this season. Will we get 2014 Verlander who had a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP? Or do we get the 2015 improved Verlander who struggled early after being injured but figured things out and ended the year with a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. We know Verlander won't be returning to his MVP form (in 2011 when he went 24-5 with a 0.90 WHIP and struck out 250 batters) but he's more than capable of pitching like he did in the 2nd half of 2015 and leading the Tigers rotation that needs him to have a solid year. (Remember late in the year he came within 1 out of his 3rd career no-hitter). They did sign Jordan Zimmerman to help and he should do that, but to me the key is keeping Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez healthy. If they do they will be competing with the Blue Jays as the best offense in the American league, thanks to the surprise signing of Justin Upton and the emergence of slugger J.D. Martinez. If Castellanos and Kinsler have a solid year this team could be a force to be reckoned with. Imagine facing Kinsler, Miggy, Upton, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, and Castellanos...scary.
3. Cleveland Indians - The Indians definitely won't be out-powering you as they finished 11th in the AL in runs scored and 13th in HR's. They aren't totally bare on offense though as Kipnis rebounded well and Brantley had a good season. We all know Lindor could play defense, but he surprised on the offensive side putting together a very good season. They didn't mess with the lineup much but added Mike Napoli to help with the power but will that be enough?
While the offense won't likely win them games, their rotation will as it is one of the best in baseball. Corey Kluber is the ace that leads the way, but Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, and Cody Anderson all bare their own weight. Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, and Zach McAllister helped lead the Indians pen to the 2nd lowest ERA (3.12) in the league and should finish games off provided the offense puts up enough runs.
4. Chicago White Sox - When I started writing this I had the Twins ahead of the Sox, but looking at the team from the South Side of Chicago I have to say it's a pretty good team. The rotation is solid led by strikeout machine Chris Sale who is a true ace. Jose Quintana is one of the underrated pitchers in baseball (3 straight seasons of 30 or more starts and 200 + innings) and will provide solid produciton (3.36 ERA and 177 K's in 2015). Carlos Rodon could be an X-factor if he improves on a 2014 where he struggled with control (though he's still young, and has time to fix that).
They made a big trade and landed the Toddfather from the Cincinnati Reds (insert sad face here) and he should bring good protection for slugger Jose Abreu. Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera should get on base to provide a good offense for the White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins - They didn't do anything particularly well last season and finished average or below average in most pitching and hitting categories, but still fought for a wild-card. This is a team that has two of the best young guys in baseball, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, but are still probably a couple of years before they compete for a playoff spot. The lineup isn't terrible and they added Japanese slugger Byung-Ho-Park to try and help but Minnesota isn't a power hitter's park. The rotation is decent led by Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson. Glen Perkins is a solid closer that will finish out your games, but the question is how many times will he get the chance to do that this season? I can't really figure this team out.
WEST
1. Texas Rangers - This team surprised a lot of people last season by finishing the year strong and winning the West after ending 2014 with a 67-95 record! They traded for Cole Hamels and will get Yu Darvish back sometime in the first half, giving them a very solid rotation with Holland, Martin Perez and Colby Lewis (or Chi Chi Gonzalez) in the back end.
They have 3 rising stars in their minor system with Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Lewis Brinson all waiting for their shot in Alrington. But right now they still have an offense that can win them games. Prince Fielder and an ageless Adrian Beltre will man the middle of the lineup with speedster Delini DeShields Jr, and Choo getting on base in front of them. Josh Hamilton, Mooreland, Andrus and Rougned Odor will round out the bottom. Shawn Tolleson, Sam Dyson, and Jake Diekman will all help finish out games as they will likely go down to the wire again with the rising Astros.
2. Houston Astros - It seems like just yesterday we were talking about how bad this team was, and the fact that their payroll was around $20 million. Now they have a group of rising stars led by the uber-talented Carlos Correa. The already stud SS, Jose Altuve, and George Springer make this team very fun to watch. Carlos Gomez in a contract year will look to rebound after a down year.
The rotation is great led by All-Star, bearded, Dallas Kuechel. Lance McCullers, Collin McHigh and a full season of Mike Fiers should help this rotation be one of the best in the AL. The Bullpen got a big boost with the trade for closer Ken Giles. Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp, and Pat Neshek will try and bridge the gap to get the ball into Giles' hands in the 9th.
The young guns here in Houston have gone from a can't watch to a must see, and they have plenty of talent still in the minors. Wouldn't be surprised to see this team go far in the playoffs after being knocked out by the World Series champs last year.
3. Los Angeles Angels - I think it can be easy to forget that the best baseball player on the planet still plays in Anaheim. With the rise of Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant, many people seem to have started to under-appreciate what Mike Trout not only has done, but what he can still do. It would take you a long time to run out of adjectives to describe this guy and he seems to put on a show every night, whether it's dropping a bomb, or robbing a home run. Pujols slugged his way to a 40+ HR year, but declined at the end of the year. Kole Calhoun is starting to make a name for himself as he won a Gold Glove, and hit 26 HR's. They traded for Yunel Escobar, but the biggest acquisition was Andrelton Simmons who will bring his stellar defense to the Angels. The rotation will certainly be happy about that and Garrett Richards will look to improve his numbers after coming back from knee surgery last season. C.J. Wilson, Heaney, Santiago, and Jared Weaver round out a good pitching staff.
The offense still has some questions in my opinion after ranking 27th in AVG, and 20th in runs last season. They might need to add another bat if they want to compete in a rising AL West.
4. Seattle Mariners - This is another team that's kind of hard to figure out. Their rotation should be solid led by ace Felix Hernandez (who had a down year according to King Felix numbers) and youngsters Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. Walker was terrible in the first half but started to figure things out after the All-Star break and should continue to improve. The bullpen has some questions started with Steve Cishek who had a terrible time keeping guys off the basepaths last season. Joaquin Benoit could push him for the closing duties.
The tricky part is this offense. They seem to try and add someone every year but it never seems to really help. This year it was Adam Lind, who is underrated and should help stable the lineup. Cano, Cruz, and Seager provide a nice 3-5 but the rest of the lineup likely isn't strong enough to help compete with the top 3 in the West.
5. Oakland A's - This team is always rebuilding right? Seems so as they without question, traded their best player in Josh Donaldson last season (who did nothing except win an MVP in Toronto). There is little to be excited about in the lineup other than maybe Billy Burns and Josh Reddick. Stephen Vogt had a solid first half, but slid late in the year.
Sonny Gray is excelent, but you have to wonder if they will end up shipping him off too to try and re-tool the minor system. Not going to be a fun year if you're an A's fan.
PLAYOFFS
Division Winners:
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
Texas Rangers (Wait, maybe the Astros, no Rangers, no Astros)
Wild Card Winners:
Houston Astros
New York Yankees (But hopefully the Detroit Tigers)
Hope you enjoy! (Let me know if you see any errors)
Aaron Miller
